Contraband and tobacco sales 1999-2004

Following big increases in the price of tobacco linked to tax rises, 12 cigarette sales in France saw falls of 14% in 2003 and 21% in 2004. 

Over the period from 1999 to 2004, purchases of cigarettes fell by 34%. Over the same period, the prevalence of tobacco use among French people between the ages of 12 and 75 years fell by 10%.

The difference between sales of cigarettes and the prevalence of tobacco use can be explained by a fall in the quantity of tobacco used by smokers. 

Another explanation of the discrepancy observed between tobacco consumption and tobacco sales is the possibility that tobacco is being bought in other countries neighbouring France where cigarettes are not so highly taxed, or on illicit markets. 

In order to quantify this change in buying habits, the volume of trans-border purchases of cigarettes is measured by comparing the rate of cigarette sales in the border and non-border zones of France.

First, a clear definition of contraband tobacco is required, and this will emphasise the difficulty in measuring this phenomenon.